Federal election race in the Yukon tightens up

Results from the newest DataPath Yukon poll show that the Federal election race in the Yukon is getting closer, and could be a tight margin of victory for the winner.  Currently, Liberal Larry Bagnell is maintaining his lead, however that lead is smaller than seen in past polls.  Several months prior to the election in 2006, Bagnell showed 57% of Yukoners planning to vote for him.  That popularity continued into 2007, when in September he still showed 53% of the voters planning to vote for him if the election had be called then.  In Spring of 2008, this dropped to 49%, and now in September, in the heat of an election, he has dropped slightly again to 47%.  A good part of this is due to increases for both the Conservative Party and the Green Party.  The next closest candidate to Mr. Bagnell is Darrel Pasloski of the Conservative Party, now with 34% of the vote.  This is up from 30% in July and 24% in March. 

At the same time, there was a shift from the NDP to the Green Party.  Prior to the election call, and with an undeclared candidate, the NDP was holding 12% of the voting preferences (down from the 25% seen prior to the 2006 election).  Getting off to a slow start, and not having a candidate until after the election was called, the NDP has dropped further to only 5%.  The Green Party, at 6% prior to the last election has climbed to 14% with John Striecker, up from 9% in July.  

Yukoners are split on the reason they have chosen their candidate.  Slightly over half felt the primary reason they choose their candidate was based on what that person can do for the Yukon, while slightly less than half choose that candidate due to what their Party envisions or can do for Canada.  Looking at this by the candidate selected shows quite significant differences.  Those who are planning to vote Conservative are mainly (75%) doing so because of what they envision their Party can do for Canada, while those voting Liberal are planning to vote for Mr. Bagnell because of what they envision he can do for the Yukon (83%). 

This correlates to who Yukoners feel they prefer as Canada’s next Prime Minister.  Since a year ago, Mr. Harper’s popularity increased from 37% feeling he would make the best Prime Minister to 53% today.  Liberal leader Stephane Dion has seen his popularity with Yukoners drop from 31% last to September to only 15% now.  Even among those planning to vote Liberal, only 33% support Mr. Dion while 41% support Stephen Harper as the best leader for Canada.

When asked which issue was the most important one for their candidate to agree with them on, the top responses were the Economy (25%), and Climate Change (20%).  The younger the voter the more likely they were to feel that Climate Change was the top issue.  As age increased so did the likelihood that the Afghanistan War was a top issue.  Conservative voters were more likely to choose the Economy as the top issue (34%), compared to Liberal voters (25%), NDP (24%) and Green Party (7%).  Liberal and NDP voters were more likely to rate Climate Change (18%) and Health Care (18%) at the top, while the Green Party supporters were significantly more likely to feel their candidate had to agree with them primarily on Climate Change (53%).  Looking at the top three mentions, that is allowing respondents to select the three issues their candidates needs to agree with them on, the list focuses on the Economy, Health Care, (both at 50% of respondents including them in their top three items), followed by Climate Change (38%) and Gas Prices (34%).

When asked to rate how they feel the current government and Stephen Harper are doing on those areas, few received top marks, despite Mr. Harpers popularity.  Those items where Yukoners tended to rate the government in a positive light (a 4 or 5 on a 5 point scale) included the Peace Keeping agendas (32% rated a 4 or 5), Northern Sovereignty (32%), The Economy (31%), Health Care (29%), Afghanistan War (26%), The Arts (24%), Gun Control (23%), and Reducing Crime (21%).  Weak areas for the current federal government among Yukoners (with half or more giving negative, 1 or 2 ratings) are Gas Prices (67%), Climate Change (64%), Housing (56%), Gun Control (54%), Social issues (49%), and the Arts (48%).

The survey was conducted by DataPath Systems, an independent Yukon-based market research company. Telephone and online surveys were conducted with 150 Whitehorse residents and 150 non-Whitehorse residents between September 13 – 21, 2008. The data is weighted to accurately represent Yukoners based on the community they live in, their age and gender. Percentages are statistically valid to +/- 5.5%, 19 times out of 20 (95% confidence). Data reported in this press release are from non-commissioned sections of the study, paid for by DataPath Systems.

For more detailed information contact Donna Larsen at 867.660-4600.