Federal Politics Impacts Yukoners Election Plans

The Conservative Party in the Yukon is being hit hard by Yukoners’ reactions to Federal economic woes.  Support for Conservative Party candidate Darrell Paslowski dropped from 34% in mid-September to 27% by October 9^th.  This follows with other national polls that have also seen the Conservative Party declining in the recent week.  Using a Simon Fraser report and comparing seven national polls which took place at approximately the same time periods as the DataPath Polls, shows how the Conservative Party across Canada dropped 6 percentage points from an average of 39% to an average of 33% on October 8^th.  The Yukon Conservative Party experienced a similar 7 point drop.  “I am a bit surprised by this, actually” commented DataPath partner Donna Larsen “since the Yukon tends to follow national politics a bit less closely than other Canadians do.  But in this election, the events impacting Canada are significant and seem to be getting Yukoners attention.” 

Liberal candidate Larry Bagnell is holding steady with 47% of decided voters currently opting for the incumbent.  This has been steady since early 2008.  In third place is the Green Party’s John Streicker with 15% of the voters (up from 14% last month).  The NDP jumped from 5% (shortly after announcing a candidate) to 11% now siding with Ken Bolton.

The connection to national events is seen more clearly when looking at the approval ratings for Stephan Harper.  In September 51% of Yukoners approved of the job he was doing.  In October, that dropped to 41% approving, while now 50% disapprove.  In September 53% felt that Mr. Harper was the best leader for Canada, and that has dropped to 45%.  “The reason that Mr. Paslowski is taking the biggest drop here is his close association with the federal Conservative Party.  Yukoners who are planning to vote for Darrell are primarily doing so because of what they feel his Party can do for Canada.  In both September and October about 75% of Paslowski supporters were there because of his Party.  Therefore, when the Party starts to drop, there is a large share of his supporters who start to waver.  Larry Bagnell, on the other hand, was much less connected to national influences, as only 25% of his supporters were there for national reasons.  75% of his supporters were there because of what they felt Larry could do for the Yukon.”  added Donna Larsen.

In September, 53% of those Yukoners who were voting based on national leadership were planning to vote for Darrell Paslowski.  Today, that number has dropped to only 37%.  “This shows that among voters who are voting for the national party, they are moving away from the Conservative Party.  This, combined with the NDP getting a candidate in the field, has added to the shift in voter preferences.”  Donna continued. 

There are some demographic differences between the candidates.  Those voting Conservative tend to have higher incomes, are slightly older and slightly more often male, compared to other candidate’s supporters.  Some demographic differences show that rural Yukon residents are equally likely to be voting Conservative (27%) or Green (13%) compared to Whitehorse residents, but less likely voting Liberal (39% in rural communities vs. 49% in Whitehorse) and more likely to vote NDP (21% vs. 8%).  Compared to men, women have a higher propensity to vote either NDP (15% of women vs. 7% of men, or Green (19% of women vs. 11% of men).  The older the voter, the greater the likelihood to vote either Conservative or Liberal.  Employment also is a factor.  Among those employed, government employees had a higher share supporting the Green Party at 20% vs. 11% among those in the private sector.

The survey was conducted by DataPath Systems an independent Yukon-based market research company. Telephone surveys were conducted with 199 Whitehorse residents and 105 non-Whitehorse residents between Oct 4^th and 9^th, 2008. The data is weighted to accurately represent Yukoners based on the community they live in, their age and gender. Percentages are statistically valid to +/- 5.5%, 19 times out of 20 (95% confidence). This was based on non-commissioned sections of the study, paid for by DataPath Systems.

For more detailed information contact Donna Larsen at 867.660-4600.