Yukoners Starting to Pick a Party – NDP Gaining Support

More Yukoners are now selecting one of the three major political parties to vote for in the next election then seen earlier this year.  Among decided voters, 94% have selected one of the three parties, with only 6% choosing “Other” in a recent DataPath Poll.  That compares to 16% in Winter and 14% in Spring of this year.  The party gaining the most from that change is the NDP.  Among decided voters, 43% felt that they would be most likely to vote NDP if the election were held today, which is a significant increase from 30% in Spring of this year.  The NDP also gained from the drop in Liberal Party support – down to 21% from a high of 29% in Spring.  Support for the Yukon Party increased slightly, from 28% in Spring to 30% in Summer.  As of August, the NDP is pulling ahead in the poll with 43% of decided voters, followed by the Yukon Party with 30% and the Liberal Party with 21%.

Support for the Yukon Party is strongest among those living outside of Whitehorse (39% vs. 27% in Whitehorse), among men (33% vs. 27% of women) and among older voters (37% of those over 55, compared to 29% of those under 35).

For the NDP strength remains slightly higher in Whitehorse (44% vs. 40%), among women (51% vs. 36% of men), and among those 35 – 55 (53%).  The Liberal Party is also stronger among Whitehorse residents than non-Whitehorse (23% vs. 17%), among men (24% vs. 18%) and has no significant differences across age groups.

Because more ridings (11 of the 18 ridings) are in Whitehorse, having strength in Whitehorse can determine the outcome of the election.  Among Whitehorse residents only, 44% are planning to vote NDP, 27% Yukon Party and 23% Liberal.  Government employees are driving this NDP lead.  Among those working for a government (Federal, YTG, Municipal, First Nations) 47% are leaning NDP, compared to 38% among non-government employees.

Satisfaction ratings for the three parties reflect the same trends.  On a scale from one to five, where one means poor and 5 means excellent, Yukoners were asked to rate the performance of each party.  The NDP showed the most positive ratings with 24% rating them a 4 or 5.  This compares to 18% for the Yukon Party and 16% for the Liberal party.  While rating for the Yukon Party and the Liberal Party were stable from Spring time poll results, the NDP’s jumped from 19% to 24%. 

One-third of Yukoners remain undecided on any party – consistent with previous polls.  The younger the resident the more likely they are to be undecided (36% among those under 35 years old, compared to only 28% for those over 55), and those outside of Whitehorse are more undecided at this time (38% vs. 33% in Whitehorse). They differ from decided voters by placing much higher importance on unemployment.  Among undecided voters 21% place unemployment as the number one issue in the Yukon, this compares to only 10% among decided voters. This is not related to their personal employment status, as 66% are employed full time and 20% are employed part time.  Among decided voters 66% are employed full time and 5% are employed part time.   Among undecided voters, 42% rate the economy in critical or serious condition, compared to 33% of decided voters, again reinforcing this issue among undecided voters.

Also in this poll, Yukoners are perceiving significant improvements in the economy.  Now only 10% rated the economy in critical condition.  This compares to average scores in the mid-twenties in 2002 – 2004, peaking at 33% in the Fall of 2004.  Currently 16% rate the economy in either Healthy or Peak condition, up from an average of only 2 – 3% in 2002- 2004.  Now, only 22% of Yukoners list the economy as the number one issue in the Yukon – down from an average of 33% in previous years.  This is stable from Spring 2005.  Attention has shifted from big picture issues like the economy and unemployment to more specific and social topics like the environment, education, health care, and alcohol/drugs.  A new item surfaced in this poll with 4% mentioning the price of fuel as the top issue, even before the impacts of Katrina occurred.

The survey was conducted by DataPath Systems; an independent Yukon-based market research company. Telephone surveys were conducted with 193 Whitehorse residents and 112 non-Whitehorse residents between July 24 and August 21, 2005. The data is weighted to accurately represent Yukoners based on the community they live in, their age and gender. Percentages are statistically valid to +/- 5.5%, 19 times out of 20 (95% confidence). This was a non-commissioned study, paid for by DataPath Systems.