Economy is stable, party preference is split.
While Yukoners are becoming more positive about the state of the economy, they are becoming slightly more diverse in their choice of political leader.
Over
the past year, more Yukoners are rating the economy in either Stable,
Healthy or Peak condition compared to ratings seen in 2002 and 2003. The
worse ratings were seen in the winter of 2004, when 75% of Yukoners felt the
economy was in critical or serious condition. That dropped to 52% in early
2005, and has dropped to just 38% this month. Currently 47% feel the
economy is in stable condition and 14% rate it in healthy or peak
condition. However, that is not necessarily translating to individual
situations. During the winter of 2004 23% felt that they were much better
or somewhat better off then they were the year before, and that has remained
fairly stable at 21% in this current poll. This has improved since the 2002
polls when only 15-16% felt they were better off.
The improved attitudes towards the economy, are also not translating to support for the current government. If an election were held today, among decided voters, 25% would support the Yukon Party, 31% Liberal Party, 35% NDP and 9% Other. In 2002 the Yukon Party won a majority government with 40% of the vote, while the Liberal Party won only one seat with 32%. “It is important to understand that popular vote does not predict riding results, nor can a poll conducted this far in advance of an election be used to forecast the results of an election. This information is used to show trends in attitudes and explore the reasons behind them.” Added Donna Larsen partner of DataPath Systems.
The trend is showing that Yukoners preferences are now more evenly spread out across the political parties. The Yukon Party has dropped since their election victory highs, but has been stable over the past year with about 25-27% of Yukoners support. At the same time, the Liberal Party has recovered from the low support they were showing a year ago to recover to 31%. The NDP has climbed since the last election and now maintains 33 – 35% of the voters. "It’s still a horse-race and anyone’s call right now” concluded Donna Larsen.
Overall satisfaction ratings with the three parties shows a similar trend, with a predictable drop for Yukon Party between 2003 and 2004 after the honeymoon stage ended, to become stable with 17% of residents rating the Yukon Party a 4 or 5 on a 5 point scale. Ratings for the Liberal Party have increased consistently since February, and had another small bump up this fall after the Porter Creek by-election. Currently 19% rated the Liberal Party a 4 or 5 (up from 13% in 2003 and 11% in 2004). The NDP is also experiencing increasing satisfaction scores, also with 19% high satisfaction scores (up from 14% in 2003 and 16% in 2004). This shows that satisfaction with the three parties is nearly even.
The differences are in what is driving the party support. Over half of decided voters are supporting their party because they agree with the party’s policies and ideas. Another 31% are supporting a party because they simply don’t like the current government. “You always hear the story that Yukoners don’t vote a government in, they vote a government out, and that is supported by this data. Nearly one-third of voters are choosing a different party because they are voting against the Yukon Party”, commented Donna Larsen. Currently only 16% are selecting the party based on the individual candidate in their riding. “Since no candidates are currently running this indicates a level of support for the current incumbent.” added Ms. Larsen.
The policies that are driving that support differ by party. Among those choosing the Yukon Party, 56% are doing so based on economic polices. For Liberal supporters, 31% support their environmental policy, while 29% of NDP supporters are there due to the social policies and 27% support their environmental policies.
Among those who are reporting that they are voting for a party because they don’t like the current government, 49% felt one of the reasons was a lack of trust, and 46% felt it was due to bad decisions. Only 22% felt they had not seen enough improvement in the economy, only 22% placed their dissatisfaction in Premiere Fentie and 18% felt poor environmental decisions had been made. “The real issue is trust,” added Donna Larsen. (Note, respondents could select more than one reason).
The trust issue is even more pronounced with Whitehorse residents. Among Whitehorse residents 52% felt a reason they would vote against the current government was not trusting them, and 35% picked an alternate party primarily because they did not like the current government – this compares to only 32% of those outside of Whitehorse feeling a distrust issue and 20% choosing another party due to not liking the current one.
Outside of Whitehorse, the Yukon Party has stronger support, 37% would vote Yukon Party, 31% NDP and 23% Liberal.
Nearly 22% of Yukon residents also remain undecided. This has dropped since the summer when 30% were undecided. “What we are seeing is people starting to pick a party, and the Liberal Party and NDP have been the winners in capturing this support.” The profile of the undecided voter shows they are more often younger women, without children, employed full time, living in Whitehorse – although there are 36% of undecided voters living outside of Whitehorse, higher than the general population at 27%.
The survey was conducted by DataPath Systems; an independent, certified Yukon based market research company. A combination of telephone surveys and web panel surveys were conducted with 177 Whitehorse residents and 123 non-Whitehorse residents between November 28 and December 6, 2005. The data is weighted to accurately represent Yukoners based on the community they live in, their age and gender. Percentages on the total sample are statistically valid to +/- 5.5%, 19 times out of 20 (95% confidence). This was a non-commissioned study, paid for by DataPath Systems.
For more detailed information contact Donna Larsen at 867.660-4600.